In 2023, Africa will be facing a number of challenges and opportunities. The continent is scheduled to hold elections in 17 countries, which will significantly impact the continent. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, these elections could bring volatility in Africa and there is a high risk of political protests, mass demonstrations and strikes in several countries1. One of the critical questions in 2023 will be whether democracy is consolidated or pushed back further. The key elections to watch are in Nigeria, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe, with violence likely in some of these countries1.
In addition to the elections, Africa is also facing security issues. West Africa and the Sahel are facing unprecedented levels of insecurity2. Operations by armed groups, violent extremists and criminal networks have forced the closure of more than 10,000 schools and some 7,000 health centers2. These non-state groups are fighting among themselves for supremacy and control of resources, pushing States to the margin and causing untold misery to millions who have fled elsewhere to safety2.
Africa is also facing geopolitical competition. Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world were split into two isolated trading blocs centered around China or the United States and the European Union3. Countries will need to build resilience to manage the inevitable shifts in trade and foreign direct investment3.
The youth vote will also play a significant role in African politics in 2023. In Nigeria, for example, over 70% of the 12 million new registered voters are youths under age 344. Another 40 million young people are registered, amounting to over 50% of the electorate4. The Nigerian elections are important because it’s one of the largest economies on the continent and Nigeria is struggling with security issues1. The election is also important because of the youth vote in Nigeria, who could shift the balance of power between the major political parties one way or the other1.
Africa’s economy will also be a major focus in 2023. African economies remain resilient amid multiple shocks, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions to global supply chains due to Russia’s prolonged invasion of Ukraine and a tightening of global financing conditions5. However, African economies remain resilient, with average growth projected to stabilize at 4.1 percent in 2023–245. The growth outlook is subject to significant downside risks, including subdued global growth weighing on Africa’s exports, persistence of tight global financial conditions exacerbating debt servicing costs; significant losses and damages due to frequent extreme weather events exacerbating fiscal pressures; the prolongation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; persistent disruptions to global supply chains; elevated geopolitical risks due to upcoming national elections in some countries; and other factors5.
In conclusion, Africa will be facing a number of challenges and opportunities in 2023. The continent will hold elections in 17 countries which could bring volatility. Security issues remain a concern, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel. Geopolitical competition could also impact African countries. The youth vote will play a significant role in African politics. And finally, Africa’s economy will be a major focus as it remains resilient amid multiple shocks but faces significant downside risks.